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BC Election 2013: A Week Today We'll Know the Outcome

Three Hundred Eight Election Prediction outcome, May 6 2013


The inevitability of change looms large on the horizon.

As much as the pollsters want to turn the 2013 British Columbia election into a race to the finish line, in fact that's not what's happening at all. The people across this vast province of ours continue to hanker for change, whether that be adding a couple of Green MLA's to the ledge for the next term (Andrew Weaver and Adam Olsen), or a couple of Independents (Vicki Huntington and Arthur Hadland), plus a surfeit of NDP MLA's — including 'always a bridesmaid, never a bride' NDP candidate for Maple Ridge - Mission, Mike Bocking — but make no mistake, change is on the way.

As can be seen in ThreeHundredEight's graphic at the top of today's post, the BC NDP are looking at somewhere in the range of 48 to 56 seats, while the Liberals continue to trail with 36 to 42 seats, not in majority range, and out of contention for government. Sure, there's still six days to go in Decision BC 2013, but the writing is on the wall, Adrian Dix and the NDP have stepped up their game — finally deciding that it's time to hold the BC Liberals' feet to the fire — BC Conservative leader John Cummins has picked up his game in the waning days of the campaign, while BC Green Party leader Jane Sterk focuses on winning at least one seat in the legislature. Ms. Sterk knows that a portion of the Green vote will evaporate on election day, as many of her Green supporters will vote strategically, for the NDP.

Vancouver-Point Grey Becomes a Bellwether Riding in 2013

Vancouver's Point Grey riding has been represented by a Liberal premier for more than a decade, but that nearly changed in 2011 when the NDP's David Eby came within 564 votes of unseating Christy Clark in a by-election. Now, with Clark and the BC Liberals trailing in the polls, many believe the riding is Eby's to lose, offering a hint at how the rest of the province votes, too.

"It's a David and Goliath story of sorts, although I am much taller than Christy, so I am not sure the metaphor totally holds," says Eby. "It's challenging for me running against the premier. She's in the news every day, she's spent a huge amount of money on advertising. Our response has been—since we didn't have that kind of budget—to knock on as many doors as possible and talk to as many people as possible in the riding."

And so David Eby, the NDP candidate in Vancouver-Point Grey, and his legion of door-to-door canvassers who've knocked on every door in the riding in one mightily impressive example of the NDP's superior "ground game" — and let's not forget unprecedented mail-in ballot support from the many thousands of UBC students resident in the riding, as efficient and focused a campaign as VanRamblings has ever witnessed, with campaign manager Kate Van Meer-Mass in full control, with a first-rate voter contact phone bank co-ordinated by Sean Antrim that runs morning to night, and a volunteer organization by Gala Milne (not to mention, stalwarts Mary Tenny, John Yano and Indra Roodal, among many, many other volunteers working together in Vancouver's western most riding) second-to-none in our current BC election campaign — making the race to win the hearts and minds of the people of Vancouver-Point Grey, one to watch election night.

BC Election 2013: News of the Day Heading Towards May 14th

The story of the day, so to speak, on the campaign trail on Sunday night and for much of Monday, was the cynical re-emergence of adulterer and political chameleon, Gordon Wilson, a one-time leader of the BC Liberals, one-time head of the Progressive Democratic Alliance, then an NDP cabinet minister in the government of Premier Glen Clark, and now—apparently—a born again BC Liberal. The head just swims. You can watch Wilson's endorsement of Christy Clark (really?), at the end of the story in the link above, or better still you can hear BC NDP leader Adrian Dix's take on Wilson, and more importantly, the critical issues in the 2013 British Columbia election, by clicking on the link below, for an interview conducted by Rick Cluff, with Dix, broadcast yesterday morning on CBC's Early Edition.

Who knows what's going on at British Columbia's newspaper of record, The Vancouver Sun? First up, one week to go to election day, and we have Vaughn Palmer reminding his 300,000+ readers about the HST, and the BC Liberals' role in this boondoggle that brought down a Premier, quoting Martyn Brown, former Chief of Staff to Gordon Campbell ...

"The last thing British Columbians expected from the Campbell government, which had made personal income tax relief — and household tax relief — so central to its vision, was a tax shift that would increase their tax burden, especially in the midst of a recession," wrote the premier's then chief of staff Martyn Brown in a devastating analysis-cum-mea-culpa self-published last summer.

"The HST was an issue of such broad public importance that it should never have been imposed without any prior consultation, let alone only weeks after an election, and in direct contradiction to the governing party's stated position. It represented such a significant shift in the tax burden from businesses to individuals that it was not on a scale that would have ever been right to impose it as a done deal."

"No mandate. A betrayal of the electorate ..."

Next, The Sun's Peter O'Neil suggests that ...

Ideological differences notwithstanding, an Premier Adrian Dix-Stephen Harper relationship could be a productive one. Political insiders say there are many similarities between Harper and Dix that may help the two hit it off despite clashing ideologies. Both are bilingual and former Parliament Hill staffers who grew up during the same era in major multicultural urban areas. Dix, who turned 49 on April 20, is the son of a couple who ran an insurance business in Vancouver. Harper, who celebrated his 54th birthday on April 30, is a Toronto native and the son of an accountant.

Harper and Dix are knowledgeable sports fans with a deep understanding of Canadian political history. And while Dix is far less reserved than Harper, neither man could be mistaken for glad-handing extrovert politicians like their current principal rivals — Christy Clark and Justin Trudeau. And Harper, according to some of his former cabinet colleagues, respects straight-shooting politicians with clear and unwavering principles, and who approach relations in a business-like fashion. Dix has tried to telegraph to both B.C. businesses and his own party members that he'll advocate a moderate agenda with no big surprises.

O'Neil then goes on to write that BC Liberal leader Christy Clark ...

"has just as frequently frustrated the federal Conservatives, most recently on Sunday when she once again turned her nose up at two oilsands pipeline proposals to the B.C. coast that are considered by Ottawa to be in the national interest. If Clark manages a stunning come-from-behind victory on May 14, British Columbians can assume more of the same — continued federal-provincial tensions on the oilsands pipelines issue and occasional flare-ups like the Kitsilano Coast Guard closure dispute."

And in the newspaper's pièce-de-résistance for the day, The Sun quotes BC NDP leader Adrian Dix reminding British Columbians of the BC Liberals' failure to help suffering children during their dozen years in office.

"Eight years leading the country in child poverty and the Liberal party is offering nothing except misleading comments and attacks," Dix said of the province's child-poverty rate ... Here's what I find offensive. I say Yes to LNG. I say yes to mining. I say Yes to forestry. I say Yes to film and television. I say Yes to tourism. But here's what I say No to. I say No to doing nothing when children suffer."

Hmmm. Do you think that the folks over at the Vancouver Sun know something we don't? Like maybe, just maybe, Adrian Dix and the BC NDP are set to win a majority government next Tuesday, May 14th?

BC Election 2013: Where The Leaders Will Be Tuesday, May 7th

Christy Clark will spend the day campaigning in Fort Nelson and Kitimat, doing her level best to keep the North in the BC Liberal fold, while preventing the BC Conservatives from gaining party stature in the British Columbia legislature.

Adrian Dix has a morning rally in Sidney, over on Vancouver Island, as well as rallies in the afternoon (following lunch, of course), a roundtable, and in the evening, a bit of Round 1, Game 4 Vancouver Canucks vs the San Jose Sharks Stanley Cup playoff watching, first in Richmond, then in Vancouver, and finally in Delta. Guess we know what Dix will be doing between periods.

  • 8:05am: Sidney - Campaign announcement with candidates Lana Popham, Rob Fleming, Carole James, Maurine Karagianis, Gary Holman, Jessica Van der Veen & John Horgan, Tulista Park (5 St .& Ocean Ave.)
  • 11:40am: Richmond - Campaign event with candidates Frank Huang, Gian Sihota, Scott Stewart, Richmond campaign office (8980 No. 3 Rd)
  • 12:45pm: Vancouver - Chinese community luncheon with candidates Jenny Kwan, Gabriel Yiu, George Chow, Frank Huang at Yue Shan Society Headquarters (37 E. Pender St.)
  • 5pm: Surrey - South Asian media round table with candidates Bruce Ralston, Jagrup Brar, Harry Bains, Sue Hammell, Amrik Mahil, Avtar Bains, Gabriel Yiu, Sylvia Bishop, Nic Slater, Raj Chouhan at Grand Taj Banquet Hall-Queen Hall (8388 128 St.)
  • 6:45pm: Delta - Canucks Game with supporters and candidate Sylvia Bishop at one20 Pub & Grill (8037 120 St.)

BC Conservative leader John Cummins will campaign in the Okanagan.

  • 10am: Penticton - Announcement of support for region's health care facilities, with candidate Sean Upshaw, at Carmi Coffee House Salon and Spa (595 Carmi Ave.)

Green Party of BC leader, Jane Sterk, will continue her door-to-door canvass in her home riding of Victoria-Beacon Hill, as well as ...

  • 7:45am: Victoria - Rush hour wave, Cook and Pandora
  • 11:30am: Victoria - Nurses Appreciation Party, Royal Jubilee Hospital
  • 2pm: Victoria - Mainstreeting, Cook Street Village
  • 6:15pm: Victoria - Social Service all-candidates meeting at First Metropolitan United Church

Full VanRamblings election coverage available by clicking Decision BC 2013.



Posted by Raymond Tomlin at May 7, 2013 12:23 AM in BC Politics

   

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