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British Columbia Election 2013: A Round Up of Predictions

308 final British Columbia election prediction, May 14, 2013
Éric Grenier's final British Columbia election prediction, May 14, 2013

Éric Grenier — the Canadian statistician, sabermetrician, psephologist, and writer — has developed a system for forecasting political party popularity, and during election campaigns, outcome predictions for provincial and federal campaigns. To that end, as of this morning, Monday, May 13th — employing all of the polling data from Abacus, Angus-Reid, Ipsos-Reid, Forum Research and all other pollsters sampling voter intent in the province during the Decision BC 2013 post-writ election period — Mr. Grenier continues to predict a 92.7% chance of an NDP majority government as the outcome of the British Columbia provincial election, even if by a slimmer margin than was the case at the outset of the current election period.

As Mr. Grenier suggests in his latest column for the Globe and Mail ...

"Despite a spell of new polls heading in different directions injecting a good deal of uncertainty into what to expect from tomorrow's election in British Columbia, the B.C. New Democrats remain the favourite to win and form the province's next government.

Based on current polling levels, Mr. Dix appears safely in majority territory with a projected 45 to 56 seats, above the 43 seats needed to form a majority government. Christy Clark's Liberals are projected to win between 26 and 40 seats, while up to four independents should be elected. These numbers are virtually unchanged from the last forecast, while the precise projection of 48 seats for the NDP and 36 for the Liberals (along with one independent) is the same.

For those who can't get enough of this, here is Angus Reid's election eve polling data — a poll conducted over the weekend for CTV and the Globe and Mail — indicating the NDP are holding steady, with a commanding lead.

Meanwhile, Ipsos-Reid has released their final British Columbia 2013 election polling data, indicating that the BC NDP currently has the support of 45% of decided voters in BC, maintaining an 8 point lead over the BC Liberals, who are at 37% support. The Green Party is at 9%, followed by the BC Conservatives at 6%, with all other parties / candidates coming in at 3%.

UBC's Sauder School of Business Election Prediction Market analysis
UBC's Sauder School of Business 2013 British Columbia Election Prediction Market forecast

Hedging its bets some, the Globe and Mail — which came out on Friday with an endorsement of the B.C. Liberal / Christy Clark administration, an endorsement The Tyee calls murky and error-ridden — also has the Sauder School of Business conducting an election prediction market, the results of which may be seen in the graphic directly above. Both the Sauder School of Business and predict a New Democrat majority government.

Milton Chan's Election Prediction Project projection, May 13, 2013
Milton Chan's Election Prediction Project 2013 British Columbia election outcome prediction

Meanwhile, Milton Chan weighed in on election eve, with his prediction of the outcome of the 2013 British Columbia provincial election. Mr. Chan, too, predicts an NDP majority government in Victoria, but by a relatively slim margin. By clicking on the graphic above, readers can access Mr. Chan's riding-by-riding breakdown for each of the 4 regions of the province — Vancouver, Metro Vancouver, Vancouver Island, and the Interior.

As Decision BC 2013 draws to a close, there are more media, pundits and political watchers who are weighing in on the outcome of the election, and as is the case with the Election Prediction Project, providing a riding-by-riding analysis. Although the predictions below differ from Éric Grenier's riding analysis, there's just as much likelihood that any one of them could be as accurate, or even more accurate, than the esteemed Mr. Grenier.

  • First up, there The Tyee's predictions for ridings across the province where, according to the folks working on The Tyee's riding prediction analysis for B.C., "We have analyzed the polls, mulled over elections past, and peered into our crystal ball to bring you our predictions for which candidates will win which ridings. These calls are divided up into likely wins and definite wins, with some ridings deemed too close to call, the predictions no means set in stone." Too late — the election is almost upon up. At this point, one would have to consider The Tyee's latest set of projections to be their final riding-by-riding predictions for the outcome of the 2013 British Columbia provincial election.

  • Next up, there's Bernard Schulmaan's B.C. Iconoclast website. Mr. Schulmann weighs in with this riding-by-riding analysis, and following his careful analysis believes "the NDP will win 57 seats, the Liberals 22, independents 4 and Greens 2," a more hopeful analysis if you're an NDP supporter than any of the other prognosticators reporting out above.

  • Sacha Peter, at, predicts 59 seats for the BC NDP, 21 seats for the BC Liberals, 1 lone seat for the BC Conservatives, 1 elected Independent, and no elected BC Green Party members.

  • And finally for now, there's the indefatigable Alex Tsakumis, who believes, as do other pundits, that we are on the verge of an NDP majority government, as he predicts 58 seats for the NDP, only 21 seats for the Liberals, with 5 independents being elected to the legislature in Victoria, along with 1 member of the Green Party of B.C. Here is Mr. Tsakumis' riding-by-riding prediction, which he promises to update at 5pm on election day.

Well, that's what we've got so far, folks. We'll know final election results Tuesday night.

In keeping with VanRamblings' consistent exposition of our prediction of the outcome of the 2013 British Columbia provincial election, we continue to believe that the BC NDP will secure a majority government with 54 seats in the legislature, followed by the Liberals with 30 seats, with the final seat going to Independent Vicki Huntington in Delta South. Could be a few seats fewer for the NDP, could be a few more. We'll know Tuesday night.

Get out and vote on Tuesday, May 14th: polls are open in the B.C. election, 8 a.m. thru til 8 p.m.

VanRamblings will update the election outcome predictions later today, as the information is made available to us. Make no mistake, though, the province of British Columbia is headed toward a New Democratic Party majority government, the only issue left the size of that majority.

Although we've done our best to be non-partisan the past few of days, allow us at this critical juncture in the dying, yet hopeful, period in 2013's British Columbia provincial election to put on our partisan hat.

In order to ensure an NDP victory, it is of critical importance that you get out to the polls tomorrow to vote for Change for the Better.

Sitting home on your duff on election day, or casting a ballot for the Greens, is not going to bring a new government to British Columbia — that will occur if, and only if, you cast a ballot for the only political party that can hope to replace the corrupt and discredited government of Christy Clark and the B.C. Liberals, and form a government that will revive the British Columbia economy, and bring prosperity to the province, in the interests of all — and that party is the British Columbia New Democratic Party.

Make a Plan. Vote BC NDP on May 14th, British Columbia's election day

Posted by Raymond Tomlin at May 13, 2013 2:41 PM in BC Politics


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