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Decision Canada 2015: Canadians Ask, Is Change on the Way?

Tory cabinet ministers about to be squeezed out in 2015 electionTory cabinet ministers to be squeezed out: Leona Aglukkaq (Environment), Rob Nicholson (Justice), Ed Holder (Science), Joe Oliver (Finance), Chris Alexander (Immigration)

We live in a time of some great social and political turbulence.

War in the Middle East plagues the world. A renewed Cold War heats up between a crippled Russian bear, and a United States in turmoil (Donald Trump running for President? ... make no mistake, the U.S. is in trouble).

At home, Canadians have experienced 10 lost years at the malevolent hand of our homegrown dictator, Stephen Harper: the economy roils with anxiety, record numbers of families are in distress as child poverty grips our land, environmental concerns remain a sour afterthought, and only days away deliverance beckons as but a forlorn hope for an uncertain — but let us hold out for all our sakes, a buoyant and aspirational — future.

Stephen Harper frowns at the prospect of losing power

For the progressive forces of change, let us take joy where we may find it.

On October 19th, amidst the maelstrom, there are some joyous certainties:

  • Next Monday, the Liberals and the New Democrats will triumph in upwards of five ridings out of 34 in Alberta, a formerly true blue bastion for the federal Conservatives. Political strategists and MPs told The Hill Times that in the current tight, three-way election national campaign, the Liberals and the NDP have a realistic shot at making gains in the Edmonton and Calgary-area ridings. The Liberals and the NDP will win the Edmonton-area ridings of Edmonton Centre, Edmonton Griesbach and Edmonton Strathcona, while Calgary Centre, Calgary Confederation and Calgary Skyview will go to the Liberals.

  • More than two and a half dozen incumbent Conservative MPs are certain to go down to defeat on October 19th, including: Jay Aspin (Nipissing-Timiskaming, Ont.), Ryan Leef (Yukon), Andrew Saxton (North Vancouver, BC), Ted Opitz (Etobicoke Centre, Ont.), Jacques Gourde (Levis-Lotbiniere, Que.), Chungsen Leung (Willowdale, Ont.), Kerry-Lynne Findlay (Delta, BC), Lawrence Toet (Elmwood-Transcona, Man.), Chungsen Leung (Willowdale, Ont.), Wai Young (Vancouver South, BC), John Carmichael (Don Valley West, Ont.), John Duncan (Courtenay-Alberni, BC), Joe Daniel (Don Valley North, Ont.), Roxanne James (Scarborough Centre, Ont.), Peter Braid (Waterloo, Ont.), John Weston (West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea-to-Sky Country, BC), Peter Braid (Waterloo, Ont.), Joyce Bateman (Winnipeg South Centre, Man.), Bernard Trottier (Etobicoke Lakeshore, Ont.), Stephen Woodworth (Kitchener Centre, Ont.), Susan Truppe (London North Center, Ont.), Royal Galipeau (Orléans, Ont.), Bryan Hayes (Sault Ste. Marie, Ont.), Joan Crockatt (Calgary Centre, AB), Joe Daniel (Don Valley North, Ont.), Keith Ashfield (Fredericton, NB), Scott Armstrong (Cumberland-Colchester, NS), and Parm Gill (Brampton North, Ont.).

    In addition, five Tory cabinet ministers are set to go down to defeat: Finance Minister Joe Oliver (Toronto Eglinton-Lawrence), Justice Minister Rob Nicholson (Niagara Falls), Minister of State (Science and Technology) Ed Holder (London West), Minister of the Environment Leona Aglukkaq (Nunavit), and best of all, Minister of Citizenship and Immigration, Chris Alexander (Ajax), who angered so many Canadians for his role in the Syrian refugee tragedy.

In these waning days of the 2015 federal election campaign, the ride continues to be dizzying, the leaders full-throated, the outcome uncertain, but at least we can take some solace in the knowledge that Stephen Harper will lose more than 20% of his certain-to-be-defeated caucus.

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Here are the updated poll results from Nanos Research — conducted for the CTV and the Globe and Mail — and Éric Grenier's CBC Polltracker, which today projects a 136-seat minority for the Liberal Party of Canada.

2015 Canadian Federal election, Nanos Research Poll Results, October 13, 20152015 Canadian Federal election, Nanos Research Poll Results, October 14, 2015

The Globe and Mail reports that the Liberal Party has a 67% chance of forming government

2015 Canadian Federal election: Eric Grenier's CBC Polltracker, October 13, 2015

Posted by Raymond Tomlin at October 14, 2015 2:33 AM in Decision Canada 2015


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