On day seventy-two of Canada's 2015 marathon election, according to a consensus of more than 70 pollsters, Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada have pulled away from the pack and now have a substantial lead over both the fusty Conservative Party, and the principled but hapless New Democratic Party. One week from today, we may have a new government.
As can be seen in the latest Nanos Research Poll conducted for CTV and the Globe and Mail, Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada have opened an almost insurmountable seven-point lead over Stephen Harper's Regressive Conservatives, that lead in voter support finally — according to CBC poll analyst Éric Grenier's Polltracker — translating into a substantive seat count confirming a slim but workable minority government for the Liberals heading into Canada's 43rd Parliament, in the process ridding our country of the most malevolent force in federal Canadian politics in all of Canada's 148 years as a nation, not to mention the ten lost years of leadership at the federal level under a Stephen Harper-led government.
As VanRamblings posted last Tuesday, reiterated by Georgia Straight editor Charlie Smith this weekend, according to Éric Grenier's threehundredeight.com, the Liberals are now leading in 14 seats across British Columbia, a rise of 12 seats over the 2011 federal election results.
"When Parliament was dissolved, the Liberals held only two B.C. seats: Vancouver Centre (Hedy Fry) and Vancouver Quadra (Joyce Murray)," writes Smith.
"The (threehundredeight.com) website has the Liberals likely or in serious contention to elect the following candidates in addition to Fry and Murray: Jody Wilson-Raybould (Vancouver Granville), Terry Beech (Burnaby North-Seymour), Carla Qaultrough (Delta), Harjit Sajjan (Vancouver South), Jonathan Wilkinson (North Vancouver), Pamela Goldsmith-Jones (West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast), Lawrence Woo (Richmond Centre), Joe Peschisolido (Steveston-Richmond East), Randeep Sarai (Surrey Centre), Sukh Dhaliwal (Surrey-Newton), Ken Hardie (Fleetwood-Port Kells), and Judy Higginbotham (South Surrey-White Rock)."
Grenier currently projects 10 seats across the Prairies for the Liberals, 62 seats in Ontario (representing more than half the seats in the province), 22 seats in Québec, and 26 seats in the Maritimes and the Territories.
Across Ontario, the Liberal Party of Canada has established what can only be described as a massive lead as the ABC (Anything but Conservative) strategic vote coalesces around Justin Trudeau in response to the NDP's support evaporating in Québec, according to a survey carried out by Google Consumer Surveys and commissioned by ThinkPol.
The Liberals currently sit at a solid 45% in voter support in Ontario, followed by the Conservatives at 27%, the NDP at 24%, and the Greens at 4%. In the ThinkPol survey, the Liberals dominated both genders and all age groups except the 65 and over group, which sided with the Conservatives, who came last behind the Greens for the 18-24 and 25-34 age groups. The Liberals also led in all income groups except the $24,000 or less group, which favoured the New Democratic Party.
Support for the NDP in MetroToronto and the 905 (the suburbs surrounding Metro Toronto) has all but vanished, as committed voters have moved to the Liberals as the Anyone But Conservative party. The remaining gains for the Liberals come at the expense of dwindling support for the Tory party.
Justin Trudeau continues to make his pitch to those voters who had previously cast their ballot for Stephen Harper's Tories ...
"At a rally held earlier today in the riding of Nepean in suburban Ottawa, the Globe and Mail reports, Mr. Trudeau said 'the Tories have a proud history,' before taking shots at Mr. Harper's promise to remove the Canadian citizenship of convicted terrorists with dual nationalities."
"Most importantly, Progressive Conservatives — Tories — can be proud that their prime ministers didn't base everything on wedge politics. They didn't divide Canadians over differences of religion or citizenship. Progressive Conservative prime ministers believed that a Canadian is a Canadian is a Canadian," Mr. Trudeau said in front of hundreds of supporters."
"The Liberal Leader said that in the past, PC governments fought against poverty and helped to improve Canada's reputation on the world stage. "Those are values that haven't disappeared, they have just disappeared from the current Conservative Party and disappeared along with anything progressive about them," he said.
Six days to go until election day Oct. 19th, the last day of advance polling in the 2015 federal election today, with the Liberals trending up daily, second wave Trudeaumania in full on mode as VanRamblings wrote on September 30th, when we first predicted a minority government for Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada and, finally, an end to the politics of division, and the election of a Canadian government that will reclaim the values that all of us who call our nation home may, once again, be proud.
Posted by Raymond Tomlin at October 12, 2015 3:36 PM in Decision Canada 2015