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Justin Trudeau is to Vitaminwater, as Stephen Harper is to Poison

Justin Trudeau, Liberal Party leader of CanadaMake it happen: Justin Trudeau, federal Liberal Party leader, as Canada's next Prime Minister

VanRamblings does not live for film alone, for there is a critically important federal election going on, that we've somehow managed to follow with alacrity. So, it's back to writing about the 34th annual Vancouver International Film Festival tomorrow, and a column today as to why it is necessary to — 13 days out from Canada's 42nd federal election — give serious thought to voting Liberal in key ridings across Canada, even if it costs seats to the New Democratic Party or Elizabeth May's Green party.

Make no mistake, VanRamblings is a dyed-in-the-wool Dipper, always have been, always will be (we believe in the fundamental maxim, "Ya dance with the one that brung ya."). Even so, in this too-close-for-comfort election, it is necessary to cast a ballot for the party that has the best chance of defeating Stephen "I'm a xenophobic, fear-mongering racist" Harper, and that party would be the Liberal Party of Canada, and the first-rate, should win candidate running for the Liberal party in your home riding (at least in close races, anyway — and, please, do vote NDP where that party is way ahead, or vote Green where it won't make a darn bit of difference to the outcome of the election — otherwise, vote Liberal, vote Liberal, vote Liberal).

The 2015 national election is not about voting with your heart, but is all about ridding Canada of the most malevolent national political force ever to take office at the federal level, in the 148-year history of our glorious land.

CTV Nanos Research federal election poll results for October 5, 2015

As VanRamblings predicted last week, second wave Trudeaumania has gripped the nation as — according to CTV and pollster Nik Nanos — Justin Trudeau and the Liberal party have gained one point in the polls each day since that column was published, catapulting from 29.3% support to the 35.6% support you see in the three-day rolling poll results above. Meanwhile, the NDP would appear to have dropped out of serious contention for government, losing 12 points in the Nanos poll over that same period, plummeting from 34.6% support to the paltry 22.8% above.

Unfortunately for Justin Trudeau and the federal Liberal Party, the much-increased support of Canadians for the Liberal plan, and the Liberal leader, has failed to properly and fortuitously translate into the necessary projected seat count increase in the upcoming 43rd Canadian Parliament, a seat count that will ensure the defeat of Stephen Harper and the (not progressive, but regressive, George Bush-like) Conservative party.

Globe and Mail seat projection, October 5, 2015

Only 9 more projected seats than the Conservatives when the Liberal Party has a 4.6% polling advantage? Clearly, the Liberal Party has some work to do to convince an increasing number of Canadians that it is the Liberal Party alone, that can defeat Stephen Harper on election day, Monday, Oct. 19th. Consult to see which candidates are doing well in your riding.

In British Columbia's 1996 provincial election, Gordon Campbell's Liberal party garnered 41.82% of the popular vote to the NDP's 39.45%, yet the NDP gained a majority in the BC Legislature, winning 39 seats to the Liberals' 33 seats. On the national level in 2015, Canadians cannot allow a similar scenario to play out in the current federal election.

In British Columbia in 2015, all 13 of the winnable Liberal seats must, in fact, go to the Liberals. As we've written previously, there are half a dozen BC ridings that are a lock for the Liberals (Vancouver Quadra, Vancouver Centre, Vancouver South, North Vancouver, Surrey-Newton, Vancouver-Sunshine Coast) but, if the Liberals are to form government in the next Parliament, the Liberal party will need to take the winnable seats of Vancouver-Granville, Surrey-White Rock, Delta, Steveston-Richmond East, Fleetwood-Port Kells, Richmond Centre, and Burnaby-North Seymour.

At the moment, Eric Grenier's projects 12 seats across the Prairies for the Liberals, 51 seats in Ontario (which will have to climb to 60, representing half the seats in the province), 20 seats in Québec, and 26 seats, or better, in the Maritimes and the Territories.

Despite the late election Trudeaumania wave, the seat projections above represent a best case scenario for the Liberals, and even if the projections above prove accurate, the Liberals will end up electing only 131 members to Parliament, for the slimmest possible minority government.

Contrary to the ads the Conservative party has run ad nauseum the past couple of years that Justin Trudeau is "not ready", if you've seen Mr. Trudeau on the hustings, in the debates, and on the nightly news television clips, it is clear to any thinking, rational human being that Justin Trudeau, and the Liberal Party, are indeed ready to form government, and that the ads are so much codswallop. Co-operating with the NDP post election night, together the two progressive parties at the federal level will work to undo the damage of Canada's lost years under the mean-spirited, not on your side, secretive and corrupt Stephen Harper-led government in Ottawa.

Upholding the rights of Canadians, the Supreme Court of Canada

VanRamblings would have preferred a Tom Mulcair-led New Democratic Party government in Ottawa — but that ain't gonna happen, folks. Let's be clear about what's at stake in this election, which is — in case you didn't realize it — the very soul of our nation, and any notion of responsible government that serves the interests of the broadest cross-section of Canadians, on all of the important issues of the day, ranging from health care to affordable housing, to upholding the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms and the consequent respect for the 9 Justices who sit on the Supreme Court of Canada (a respect Stephen Harper has sorely lacked), and the building of a full-employment economy that will allow our nation to once again thrive, as it had prior to the election of Stephen Harper as Prime Minister, and as it will again under the leadership of Justin Pierre James Trudeau, held to account by Mr. Mulcair & the federal New Democratic Party.

Posted by Raymond Tomlin at October 6, 2015 10:38 AM in Decision Canada 2015


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