Year-End Film Critic Awards Predict Upcoming Oscar Nominations


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After a dearth of good movies all year long, the pre-Oscar Christmas season rolls around and all of a sudden we’re inundated with Oscar-worthy fare. And it was ever thus.
From Brokeback Mountain to Capote, from King Kong to A History of Violence, there are enough great films playing at multiplexes across North America to sate even the most demanding of moviegoers. For the true movie lover, this time of year is nothing less than cinematic nirvana.
At the moment, the leading contender for Best Picture come Oscar time, Sunday March 5th, would be Brokeback Mountain, director Ang Lee’s epic return to form. Winner of Best Picture nods by both the prestigious New York and Los Angeles Film Critics Associations (not to mention, similar status conferred by the Boston and San Francisco Film Critics), and roping in 7 Golden Globe nominations on Tuesday — including Best Dramatic Picture and Best Actor honours for Heath Ledger and Best Director for Ang Lee — Brokeback Mountain is the early film to beat, and one of the must-see films of the holiday season. Opening this week at The Park Theatre, Brokeback Mountain will go into wide release at Christmas time.
Next up for Oscar consideration: Peter Jackson’s King Kong, a loving remake of the 1933 Faye Wray original, an epic special effects film that tugs at the heart while offering pulse-quickening entertainment. An almost perfect amalgam of Titanic and Raiders of the Lost Ark, King Kong will emerge the box office champion this Christmas season, which is fitting since it is first-rate entertainment for the whole family.
When it comes to niche films, Capote is the must-see film of the holiday season, if only for Philip Seymour Hoffman’s transforming performance as the title character. Both of George Clooney’s low-budget and well-received entries — Good Night, and Good Luck, and Syriana — continue to do well at the box office, and will garner Oscar support come Tuesday January 31st, the day the Oscar nominations are announced.
VanRamblings’ favourite film this year is Fernando Mereilles’ The Constant Gardener, a thriller, a moving love story and an indictment of the pharmaceutical industry. Now that Steven Spielberg’s prestige Christmas pic, Munich, has been savaged by many of the leading critics — along with an overall less than enthusiastic reception for Memoirs of a Geisha, Terrence Malick’s The New World, and the Weinstein brothers’ presentation of Mrs. Henderson PresentsThe Constant Gardener would seem back in serious contention for an Oscar nod, perhaps to emerge as this year’s sleeper Best Picture.
The Johnny Cash bio, Walk The Line, would appear guaranteed to emerge as one of the five Oscar Best Picture nominations — with Best Actor and Best Actress nods assured for Joaquin Phoenix and Reese Witherspoon.
David Cronenberg’s A History of Violence is almost every critics’ second pick for Best Picture, with William Hurt and Maria Bello getting the nod for Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress from the New York film critics fraternity.
Other possible contenders for Best Picture consideration, and worthwhile fare to catch the next time you visit your local multiplex or favourite art house cinema: Woody Allen’s latest flick, Matchpoint; Transamerica, starring Felicity Huffman, sure to be nominated in the Best Actress category; and Tommy Lee Jones’ The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada, opening soon. Pride and Prejudice may have a shot at Best Picture, as well.
So far, The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe hasn’t been seen on the critics Best Picture radar, but given its potential for box office gold and its probable status as counterpoint to the “gay cowboy epic” that is garnering so much attention, Hollywood may yet find a place for Narnia come Oscar time.
As to the remaining movie fare available this holiday season — Fun With Dick and Jane, Rumor Has It, The Producers (now seemingly out of Best Picture contention), Rent, The Ringer, The Family Stone (reportedly just awful), Cheaper By The Dozen 2, and Casanova — there’ll be enough cinema available this Christmas season to suit almost every taste.
You’ll want to savour this Christmas season’s multiplex offerings, in particular, because VanRamblings is predicting the slow, inexorable decline of the theatre exhibition business, as the major film studios move to “day and date” — making their films available to you for viewing with your home theatre setup on the same day the new blockbuster opens at your local multiplex. The move to home theatre as the primary viewing model is inevitable, and will in all likelihood arrive (much) sooner than later.