#BCPoli | Bozo Eruptions Disrupt Election Campaign

BC Politics, Decision BC 2024, Politics

On Saturday, October 17, 2009, Danielle Smith was elected leader of the fledgling, right-of-centre Wildrose Alberta political party. At the time, Ms. Smith was one of four elected Wildrose MLAs to sit as a Wildrose member in the Alberta Legislature.

Three years later, when the Writ was dropped on Sunday, March 26th, 2012, the 2012 election date was set for twenty-eight days later, on Monday, April 23rd.

With a tired and increasingly unpopular Alberta Progressive Party in power for forty-one consecutive years, and an ascendant Wildrose Party set to form government — if the polls were to be believed — a decidedly far-right-of-centre 41-year-young Danielle Smith looked forward to becoming Alberta’s 14th elected Premier.

Alas, that was not to be.

Although the 2012 campaign Danielle Smith and her Wildrose Party had run managed to increase their seat count from 4 to 17 seats, garnering 34.28% of the vote, it was Alison Redford — who succeeded Ed Stelmach as Alberta Progressive Conservative Party leader on Sunday, October 2nd, 2011 — who would be elected Premier, securing 43.97% of the vote, winning 61 seats in the Alberta Legislature.

Liberal leader Raj Sherman (9.89% of the vote, and 5 seats), and Brian Mason’s Alberta NDP (8.5%, and 4 seats) were little more than electoral afterthoughts.

Entering the 2012 Alberta electoral campaign, Danielle Smith was riding high in the polls, registering in the mid-50s, while Alison Redford was polling at around 34%. Again, the Alberta Liberals, NDP, and Alberta Party were electoral afterthoughts.

So, what happened to the 2012 “winning” Wildrose Party campaign?

As Stuart Thompson has written in The National Post …

It is a surefire rule of politics that at any given moment, somewhere in Canada a bozo is about to erupt.

Just as a political campaign is looking to flip the script, or turn the corner, or recapture the narrative, some bozo will ruin it for them, prompting damage control, tearful apologies, or, in the most severe cases, a resignation.

The bozos simply can’t stop themselves from erupting.

Conservative strategist Tom Flanagan, who ran Smith’s 2012 campaign, oversaw one of the most memorable stretches of bozo eruptions in Canadian political history: Smith wanted a big tent party, and open and unvetted candidate nominations.

Two days after the 2012 election was called, a Wildrose candidate’s year-old blog post was unearthed declaring that all gays were destined for a “lake of fire”. Smith refused to rebuke her candidate, saying the party “accepts a wide range of views.” And the hits just kept on comin’ for the Wildrose campaign, as day after day after day, a new candidate bozo eruption garnered front page coverage, and the lead story status on the evening news.

Danielle Smith’s dreams of becoming the Wildrose Premier were dashed, the party 20 points behind their polling on Election Day.

What does the above have to do with British Columbia’s upcoming Saturday, October 19th provincial election, and the outcome of the election?

Kevin Falcon’s B.C. United Party has gathered disturbing information on several of the B.C. Conservative Party candidates running for office, including …

Need we say that the 38th British Columbia provincial election hasn’t even begun, and already John Rustad’s B.C. Conservative Party is experiencing unfortunate and devastating candidate destroying “information” aka “bozo eruptions”.

Now, this is not VanRamblings first rodeo.

We’ve worked on and written about municipal, provincial and federal campaigns for office for the past 61 years, and we’re here to tell you that the unvetted, looney tunes grab bag of B.C. Conservative Party candidates for office will from the day the Writ of Elections is dropped on Saturday, September 14th, through until Election Day on Saturday, October 19th, be subject to one B.C. Conservative Party-destroying bozo eruption after another.

Doesn’t mean to say that the B.C. Conservatives won’t win a handful of seats, mostly up north, or if British Columbians continue to dislike the cut of B.C. United Party leader Kevin Falcon’s jib, that the B.C. Conservatives could form the official opposition. But form government post October 19th?

Never. Not in a million Sundays.


Three Hundred Eight Election Prediction outcome, May 6 2013

The final projected popular vote count heading into 2013’s British Columbia election,  giving Adrian Dix’s BC NDP a comfortable majority government couldn’t have been more wrong. Instead the final seat count on Election Night looked like this …

BC Liberals win

So, what happened that changed Adrian Dix’s political fortunes from projected Premier to also run status, and Opposition party leader?

Three things …

  • Maple Leaf Strategies pollster Dimitri Pantazopoulos. The longtime Stephen Harper pollster sent his team out to British Columbia six months in advance of the 2013 election. Here’s what Mr. Pantazopoulos advised Premier Christy Clark, and her campaign manager, Mike McDonald … “Focus on the 50 winnable seats. Ignore the 35 ridings where BC Liberals will never win a seat. Run a riding-by-riding campaign in each of those 50 ridings, where we’ll do intensive polling each evening, such that at the outset of each day, the candidate in the riding can speak to the issue of the day, the one that will get her or him elected to Victoria on voting day. Pour all of the party’s resources into those 50 ridings, and come Election Day, the BC Liberal Party will form government for the fourth consecutive time.” When Mr. Pantazopoulos made the suggestion, with some reluctance — given that the party was mired at 26% in the polls, a full 21 points behind the BC NDP — Ms. Clark and Mr. McDonald adopted Mr. Pantazopoulos campaign strategy;
  • On Earth Day, April 22nd, 2013 while on the campaign trail in Kamloops, BC NDP leader Adrian Dix arbitrarily and unilaterally announced a new environmental platform, reversing a decade of BC NDP environmental policy, stating “Under my leadership, the BC NDP reaffirms our party’s opposition to the Northern Gateway Pipeline and offshore oil exploration.” The announcement made environmentalists in the party ecstatic, but disappointed and angered BC NDP shadow environment critic John Horgan, not to mention whole swaths of the party’s union supporters. The BC Liberal Party used this reversal of BC NDP environmental policy by running a series of hundreds of weathervane ads that devastated the BC NDP campaign;

  • Although in 2013 BC NDP leader Adrian Dix campaigned with vigour, Mr. Dix performed poorly on both the province-wide televised debate, and the subsequent Leaders’ Debate on CKNW, appearing confused and unprepared, his style halting and uncertain, in contrast to a vibrant and schooled Christy Clark. So, yes, campaigns count, and can impact on an election outcome. As can an effective campaign strategy, and a well-experienced campaign team. And money, of course, for those saturation radio and TV ads, particularly in the latter two weeks of the campaign.

In some ways,  the coming provincial election is a crapshoot. Anything could happen. Who knows what will transpire during the 35-day election campaign?

The above said, the campaign strategy, experienced campaign team, the well-vetted candidates for office running in the 93 ridings across the province who won’t be given to bozo eruptions that will devastate their campaign for office, and the flush with money ads to saturate the airwaves throughout the campaign that the BC Conservative Party simply does not, and will not, have … well …

A lack of resources hardly makes for a winning BC Conservative election campaign, whatever the outcome of the election on October 19th.

#BCPoli | BC Conservatives On the Rise, While BC NDP, B.C. United & Greens Fall?

BC Politics, Decision BC 2024, Politics, , , , ,

Quitto Maggi’s Mainstreet Research poll on British Columbia voter intention, above, must be considered a rogue poll, as the results vary wildly with the work of every other reputable polling firm that has been taking the temperature of British Columbia voters leading up to this autumn’s October 19th provincial election.

As published in the Vancouver Sun on March 18th ..

According to the latest Angus Reid Institute poll on voter intention, it appears Premier David Eby’s party has a sizable lead ahead of Kevin Falcon’s B.C. United and John Rustad’s B.C. Conservatives, as well as the benefit of being the incumbent party. The NDP remains the party of choice for most voters when it comes to tackling key issues in B.C., despite most respondents saying they don’t feel the provincial government has met expectations when it comes to improving on the cost of living and health care access.

Every other reputable pollster weighing in on British Columbia voter intention find themselves in accord with the polling results published by Angus Reid.

Make no mistake, B.C. Conservative Party leader John Rustad comes across as a nice guy, well-meaning, authentic, an ‘aw shucks down home fella’ you’d like to have over for Sunday dinner.

But here’s the rub for Mr. Rustad and his fledgling B.C. Conservative Party …

  • Mr. Rustad’s B.C. Conservative Party has $346,000 in the bank with which to fight an election, while Kevin Falcon’s B.C. United Party — which has been peppering the airwaves with a (so far ineffective) multi-million dollar anti-David Eby, anti-B.C. NDP ad campaign, has $10 million in his pre-election war chest to fight the upcoming election — and David Eby’s BC NDP are fundraising like mad, with $12 million currently in the kitty to fight the upcoming provincial election;
  • Organization. The BC NDP has a finely-tuned, can’t be beat election machine, a grassroots riding-based campaign strategy dependent on thousands of volunteers signing up to help David Eby’s government gain re-election this upcoming autumn. B.C. United are not just well-funded they, too, have an experienced campaign team. Mr. Rustad became leader of the B.C. Conservatives on March 31, 2023, less than a year ago — believe us when we write that in addition to having no money to wage a winning campaign for office, the B.C. Conservatives do not have the campaign infrastructure necessary to wage a winning campaign for office;
  • 93 candidates. Each party will field 93 candidates for office this upcoming autumn. The B.C. NDP will run a tightly-controlled campaign for re-election, each of their candidates for office vetted to a fare-thee-well. The same is true for Kevin Falcon’s B.C. United Party, and Sonia Furstenau’s B.C. Green Party. Not so with John Rustad’s neophyte B.C. Conservative Party candidates for office. We’ll write more about the implications of untested candidates running for office tomorrow on VanRamblings.

As we’ve written previously, six and one-half months out from British Columbia’s autumn provincial election, approximately 4% of the British Columbia electorate are even remotely aware that there’s a provincial election on the horizon.

Let’s keep in mind that only 18% of British Columbia’s electorate tune into one or another of the various evening news programmes, read a newspaper  or otherwise keep themselves informed on what’s going on in our province. There was a time when we had an informed electorate, passionate about the place where they lived.

No longer.

Now, four per cent of the electorate represents 160,000 British Columbians, no small number that. But still. One hundred sixty thousand out of four million?

Hmmm.

We’ll have a much better idea as to how British Columbians feel about the state of the province in the early part of October, three weeks or so shy of the election.

In some sense the story will be told, too, coming out of the two election debates that will occur this autumn: one broadcast on all the television networks, the other on CKNW, when they hold their pre-election Leaders’ Debate. These debates, as we’ll write tomorrow, can have a dramatic impact on the outcome of an election.

More tomorrow.

Building Needed Housing, Preserving Our Democracy

#VanPoli Civic Politics, BC Politics, Politics, Vancouver, , , , , ,

Last evening, Wednesday, March 20th, 2024, the University of British Columbia sponsored a civic democracy workshop event at their Robson Square site, hosted by Dr. Patrick Condon, founding Chair of the UBC’s Urban Design programme, with UBC Professor Emeritus David Ley, TEAM candidate for Mayor in 2022 and former Vancouver City Councillor, Colleen Hardwick, and former Vancouver City Planner Larry Beasley the evening’s featured speakers.


Former Vancouver City Planner Larry Beasley, UBC Professor Emeritus David Ley + Colleen Hardwick

The first speaker of the evening was Dr. David Ley, a UBC Professor Emeritus in the university’s Department of Geography.

Sadly, a glitch in our recording of Colleen Hardwick’s address prevents us from posting our video of her contribution to the evening. However, the entirety of Ms. Hardwick’s historically relevant address on Wednesday evening may be found by clicking on the link to the full video covering the two-plus hours of the event.

The final speaker of the evening was Larry Beasley, introduced by Dr. Condon.

Video of the entirety of the evening is available by clicking on this link.

Autocracy and the End of Democracy — But Not Yet

#VanPoli Civic Politics, BC Politics, Politics, , , , , , ,


Scot Hein, retired senior designer, City of Vancouver. Adjunct Professor, University of British Columbia.

When Scot Hein spoke at last Thursday’s #KitsPlan Town Hall, held at the Kitsilano Neigbourhood House at West 7th and Vine, to discuss the Broadway Plan, and its implications for our beloved Kitsilano neighbourhood, he bemoaned the fact that in recent years citizens throughout Vancouver have been locked out of the decision-making process that affects the communities where they and we live.

Here is what Scot Hein had to say on the matter of civic democracy …

“As little as 15 years ago, the City of Vancouver regularly engaged in a thorough, often years long, one-on-one, in-person consultation process with citizens, when the City worked toward developing community plans for the future of neighbourhoods across the City, be that in the Grandview-Woodlands, Riley Park-Little Mountain, Kensington-Cedar Cottage or Granville-Fairview communities, or any other Vancouver neighbourhood.

In recent years, consultation and community involvement in the development process in the City of Vancouver has devolved into a top down process, where the community is not — or rarely — consulted, but are rather called out to a community meeting, where white boards are placed on walls at a community centre, announcing the planners’ conception for the development future of a neighbourhood, a development fait accompli if you will, sans any meaningful engagement with the community, or citizens who live in one of the twenty-three neighbourhoods that are the heart of Vancouver.”

Sadly, as former Vancouver City Councillor Colleen Hardwick has often averred …

“The members of City Council have often expressed that organizations like the Coalition of Vancouver Neighbourhoods, or the community resident associations who are members of the Coalition, are extra-legal forms of civic governance, unsanctioned and without mandate, that all civic authority autocratically rests solely and unabashedly with the Mayor and 10 City Council members.”


On February 13th, David Eby’s government launched the BC Builds programme to build rental housing for “middle-income earners”, geared towards  those earning between $134,000 and $284,000 annually.

Whether it’s Premier David Eby and his Housing Minister, Ravi Kahlon, or Mayor Ken Sim and the members of Vancouver City Council or, down south, Republican MAGA candidate for President Donald Trump, or in Canada should Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilevre form government following the 2025 federal election, for almost two decades now democracy has been in peril, where high-handed governments impose their will on an increasingly angry and woefully disenfranchised electorate, counterintuitively driving turn out down at the polls during the election period — only 36.3% of eligible Vancouver voters cast a ballot in our City’s 2022 municipal election — as more and more, decision-making is left to the elites.

The thrust of last week’s #KitsPlan Town Hall was to reverse the “trend” towards disenfranchisement, for the community to regain its collective power to influence change for the better, for themselves and their families, to demand a voice and input that would be incorporated into civic and provincial affairs decision-making.

While a diverse crowd attended the Town Hall — encompassing a broad cross-section of the Asian and other communities of colour and ethnicities who reside in Kitsilano, with a demographic representation of the parents of young families also voicing their concerns about the tower-driven Broadway Plan, and what it means for the livability of the Kitsilano neighbourhood — many of those in attendance were comprised of members of the seniors community, and were Caucasian.


An unrepresentative, selectively misleading photo of #KitsPlan Town Hall attendees, posted on X

The Abundant Housing, in-the-pocket of developers “We’ve never met a tower-driven development we didn’t like” naysayers posting on Elon Musk’s X (formerly Twitter) cesspool were quick to selectively call out the attendees at the Town Hall as “universally white” and old. Of course, that was not the case, as we pointed out.

Of course, there was a big online hue and cry that referred to #KitsPlan Town Hall attendees as that most awful of things, a NIMBY (as in Not In My Back Yard). The NIMBY appellation is little more than untoward name-calling and a misrepresentation of the truth. Desiring to maintain a livable community — and an agreed upon and very much desired much more dense community that encompasses a variety of environmentally-sound housing forms — can hardly be called NIMBYism.

You know, too, there was a time in the not-so-distant past when younger members of our community valued those who comprise our seniors community, as elders possessed of wisdom, gained across a lifetime of activist community involvement.

Sadly, no longer it would seem. #FightAgeism and intolerance, VanRamblings says.

In fact, if you were to survey the majority of the seniors who were in attendance at the #KitsPlan Town Hall,  you would more than likely find an engaged population of longtime died-in-the-wool community activists, who throughout their lives have fought for a better, a richer, a more diverse and a more inclusive community, who are in point of fact situated on the progressive side of history, and after a lifetime of fighting for better, are unwilling to allow City Hall to steamroll over them and their families, their neighbours, their colleagues and members of the Kits community.

In the days, weeks, months and years to come, there will be more #KitsPlan Town Halls, next time and beyond — as the movement grows — in increasingly larger venues, as members of the Kitsilano community, in increasing numbers, rally in support of the preservation of Kitsilano as a livable, if increasingly dense, family neighbourhood, where all members of the community are valued, where we might live in harmony and good health, where we know our neighbours, where our streets are friendly and safe, where we know the shop keepers in our Kitsilano neighbourhood and enjoy the restaurants we have come to love, where Jericho and Locarno beaches and Spanish Banks are but a hop, skip and a jump away.